Geopolitical Risk

How global politics, trade policy, and national security shape the AI landscape.

Geopolitical Risk

NSF Moves to Sever US-China Ties in the Research That Feeds AI

The National Science Foundation, a primary funder of fundamental AI research at US universities, gave notice of a policy barring the researchers it funds from collaborating with institutions on federal restricted-party lists. The lists are dominated by Chinese universities and labs, and AI is among the fields where the split will bite hardest.

3 min read
AI Infrastructure

Qualcomm Is Selling AI Chips to ByteDance and Micron Is Worth a Trillion Dollars

Qualcomm landed ByteDance as a customer for custom inference ASICs designed to stay under U.S. export control thresholds, and is also helping ByteDance manufacture its own chip. On the same day, Micron crossed $1 trillion in market cap. SK Hynix followed the next day. Two months ago, a Google research paper wiped $90 billion off the memory sector. The market has since reconsidered.

3 min read
Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical Risk

Huawei Says It Has a New Law of Physics

He Tingbo, chairwoman of Huawei's semiconductor business, proposed a replacement for Moore's Law. Huawei is also calling it Her's Law. The new law's first claim is that Huawei plans to be three years behind TSMC in 2031, instead of five years behind today, which is being reported as a narrowing of the chip gap and which is, technically, a narrowing of the chip gap.

3 min read
AI Infrastructure Insights
AI Infrastructure

Europe Makes a Compute Correction

Three months after an investor called Macron a 'clown' over a €30 million AI grant, a French-led consortium is bidding €10 billion for EU gigafactory funds. The AION project would deploy 288,000 GPUs at up to a gigawatt, with EDF's nuclear fleet as the differentiator. It is still dwarfed by US capex, but the checks are real now.

3 min read
Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical Risk

Mythos Got Better Without a New Release

The UK AI Security Institute tested a newer Mythos Preview checkpoint and found it solved one cyber range in 6 of 10 attempts (up from 3) and a previously unsolved second range in 3 of 10. AISI's own framing flags the obvious problem: model capabilities can jump materially between checkpoints, which complicates every pre-deployment evaluation regime currently being drafted.

3 min read
Agentic Security Insights
AI Infrastructure

Google Is Going to Space Too

The Wall Street Journal reported that Google is in talks with SpaceX to build data centers in orbit. Google has been researching space-based compute since November of last year under a project called Suncatcher. Neither company is confirming anything, but the underlying physics argument is genuine, the SpaceX IPO context is interesting, and nobody has answered the jurisdiction question yet.

3 min read
Geopolitical Risk Insights
AI Infrastructure

Claude Is Going to Space

Anthropic announced a deal for the entirety of compute capacity at SpaceX-owned xAI’s Colossus 1 supercomputer in Memphis, plus a footnote about jointly developing multiple gigawatts of compute capacity in orbit. The deal lands in the middle of week two of Elon Musk’s federal trial against Sam Altman.

5 min read
Insights Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical Risk

After Mythos, a Pre-Market Regime for Frontier AI

NIST signed pre-deployment evaluation agreements with Google DeepMind, Microsoft, and xAI, joining existing deals with OpenAI and Anthropic. The Trump administration is reportedly drafting an executive order to formalize what is currently a voluntary regime. The structural question, which current coverage has mostly stepped past, is whether a pre-market gate that only covers closed-weight labs can hold.

5 min read
Agentic Security AI Infrastructure
AI Infrastructure

The AI Buildout Goes to Sea

Panthalassa raised $140 million from Peter Thiel and friends to put AI inference compute on floating platforms powered by ocean waves. The pitch is that wave power is cheap and abundant, and that inference workloads are forgiving enough to make the rest of the engineering trade-offs worth it.

4 min read
Geopolitical Risk Insights
Geopolitical Risk

The White House Wants Mythos for Itself

The administration told Anthropic it opposes expanding Mythos access to roughly 70 organizations, but no one can say exactly what 'opposes' means here. There is no reported legal order, no regulatory action, no formal mechanism. There is just a government that wants a frontier capability for itself and would prefer that others not have it.

3 min read
Agentic Security Insights